ANALYSING AND PROGNOSING SOCIO-POLITICAL ACTIVITY USING INTELLECTUAL PROGNOSIS METHODS

Bushuev Vitaliy Vasilievich, Doctor of Engineering, professor, general director of JSC “SI Institute of energy strategy”

Sokotuschenko Vadim Nikolaevich, Candidate of Engineering, docent of Department of Complex Systems Design at the “Dubna” University

Abstract

In this paper we consider the global historical process of formation of the international community with a single economic and political system. It is assumed that globalization, as well as many other historical processes, is not only progressive but also has a wave (cyclic) component, which describes the ups and downs of the cycles of civilization. An attempt to find practical significant association between the cosmic-natural and socio-political events, from the point of view of studying the cyclical components of the historical process, is taken. The article contains the relative outlook for developments in the coming half-century and analysis of the 23rd cycle of solar activity (1996 – 2008), as well as a forecast of political, economic and military events of 24-28 cycles (up to 2050), based on a fractal study of global dynamics.

KEYWORDS: historical process, solar activity, socio-political forecasting, cyclic development of civilization.

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